Great research and write-up - I'd been sensing the same too, but the figures tell it all. My own opinion: the decline started early January when installs and page views dropped off as the pre-Christmas goldrush came to an end. As a result application revenues tailed off and this is filtering through the developer community. I don't know how much Facebook's attitude to applications has hurt, but that and an uncertain future can't have helped.
Jesse
· 1 year ago
Karl,
I don't know if that's true — the decline between Jan. 31st and Feb. 2nd is just so well-defined. In fact, January as a whole was the best month for the Facebook platform so far.
I included a timeline in the spreadsheet and lots of stuff began happening right around then. On the 16th Facebook began instituting all these new rules, and other platforms finally began implementing OpenSocial 0.7 which included proper distribution channels. Before that OpenSocial was a joke.
The decline in app activity happened right around then, too. If you correlate the % Active App graph with the Posts per Day graph from 2/2/2008 onward you get a correlation coefficient of 0.95, for example.
Karl Bunyan
· 1 year ago
Maybe I'm drawing too much from my own experience whereas you have more data, but I certainly saw traffic drop a lot around Christmas and not return in January, coupled with much lower eCPM figures. I was generally making about 1/3rd of the return pre-christmas.
On your graph of application success by week of launch, the 4 week moving average seems to decline most significantly from early January to early February, so doesn't that indicate something similar? Or am I reading it wrong?
Zach Allia
· 1 year ago
I think everyone is just incredibly bored.
Marc Brooks
· 1 year ago
Maybe it's just that it's spring and people are going outside...
Xav
· 1 year ago
would be interesting to correlate this data with the # of new apps created, # of apps users are actively using and and # of new users on facebook and see if usage of apps ion general has been going down as well....
mary hodder
· 1 year ago
Great post. i've almost completely given up on facebook but I check in once a month to see what's happened, because i'm connected to a lot of people and they are what i care about.
the reason i find facebook so awful is because of the incredible over-featured heaviness of it. and the Apps don't help. They really degrade the value of facebook to me. What a mess they are.
Joe Shamah
· 1 year ago
Heh, I think Zach has the right idea. ;)
Very nice write-up though, interesting to see the numbers to back you suspicions up rather than just what you think is happening.
Jeffrey McManus
· 1 year ago
"The forum is "active" when users are signing up and creating new threads and posts."
This is not a terrific metric for developer activity -- it doesn't measure what you purport to measure. Developers generally view and post to forums when they have problems; if fewer developers are posting to the forums, it may mean that there are more developers who are having less trouble.
Leading off with this assertion makes it seem like you started with a thesis ("winning on Facebook is not as easy as it used to be") and then went out to try to find data to support this. Your thesis may be correct, but your data doesn't support it, since you aren't measuring "winning".
Jesse
· 1 year ago
Jeffrey,
I fail to see how that's a bad measure of activity on the developer forums. The question is, why are fewer developers participating?
One hypothesis is that developers know what they need to know and have stopped using the forums. Do you have any evidence for this? Even if it is true, it doesn't explain the data. Why are fewer applications succeeding today? Why was there noticeable decline beginning around February 2nd? Why don't we see spikes whenever Facebook pushes a major change? These are the things I'd expect to see if forum usage were really just a documentation issue.
Anecdotally I know that's not true — people used the forums to talk about more than just API questions. Look at how they're structured. Only 1/4 of the forum is dedicated to technical issues. In fact, the "business" section has just as many posts overall as the technical section.
Another hypothesis is that developers are becoming less active because it's harder to succeed. This seems more likely given the high correlation between application success (see the section "Facebook Application Data" for these numbers) and forum activity. Correlation is not causation, of course, so something else could be going on, but it's wrong to dismiss these phenomenon as unrelated out of hand.
Here, anecdotally, I think I'm right because many of the top developers agree with me in private. See Zach Allia there, above? He wrote Free Gifts. Since writing this article I've been contacted by a significant number of Top 50 app developers telling me I'm spot on.
So, am I crazy? Prove me wrong — don't just insist on it.
I don't disagree, but I what data I have in that respect I'm not free to talk about publicly. Heh!
You should write a post about it. It's all about the (virtual) benjamins.
Jeffrey McManus
· 1 year ago
"One hypotheses is that developers know what they need to know and have stopped using the forums. Do you have any evidence for this?"
No, but unlike you, I'm not making any assertions about the state of developer activity on Facebook. ("Prove me wrong" isn't valid evidence. I could say that sun won't come up tomorrow -- prove me wrong.) You're the one making the assertion, so it's up to you to prove your point.
I'm not trying to say you're wrong, necessarily. I'm saying that the data that you're pulling together does not prove your assertion. People participate in online forums for a lot of reasons.
Here's a thought experiment for you: let's say that Facebook rolled out a change that broke in some fundamental way. Would the corresponding spike in activity on the forums be indicative of an increase in the health of the platform? Of course not. But it would make as much sense as what you're asserting.
Jesse
· 1 year ago
Jeffrey,
You didn't really address my response. Even if what you were saying is true it doesn't explain the high correlation between developer activity on the forums and the reduced level of success for Facebook applications launched today versus four months ago. Nor does it explain the sudden decline we see beginning around February 2nd in five of the seven measurements I took.
So, can you offer an alternative hypothesis that explains the data? Also, my claim is falsifiable, so I invite you to falsify it.
Cheers, Jesse
Dave
· 1 year ago
They should invent a social network that anyone can create content on that would then allow for a high degree of inter-linkability between that content with the content of others on the same platform. The platform should allow for the posting of not just text, but pictures, video, and other forms of data as well. They should invent this social network and then call it something like, oh, I dunno, how about the "World Wide Web".
Yeah, and then, you could build a network like Facebook or Myspace ON this "World Wide Web" and then, within those Facebooks and MySpaces, you could then build NEW social networks that would allow people to sign up and share pictures, video, text, and all kinds of data.
Dave
Sparky
· 1 year ago
People are fickled. The attrition rate for most social networks is fairly consistent. Everyone wants to be an early adaptor/user. Once the novelty wears off, people move onto the next platform. It's becoming increasingly more and more difficult for social networks to develop stickyness.
Jeremy Toeman
· 1 year ago
Interesting, but I'm not sure if this is really the right trend analysis. First, signups sooner or later had to start falling, there is a finite number of developers out there. Second, activity must fall as developers who came in to 'tinker' and explore slowly disperse - this is normal. Third, as you've pointed out, there's not quite the pot at the end of the rainbow many people thought there would be, causing developers to retreat to more profitable zones.
So I don't think I agree that the "luster is gone", more that the "hype luster" is gone...
Jesse
· 1 year ago
very interesting post. i do agree that there's too much crappy apps in the mix, and it's definitely tougher getting attention on a given app.
Capri
· 1 year ago
As a FB user and observing some other user feedback about FB apps, the reason IMO some apps are losing popularity is because they are so darn viral! Apps that don't work, or only work as little as possible so they can force you to invite friends to "unlock" new items or look at quiz results are uncool and obnoxious. So is whining about FB's limits on mass-invites. Mass-invites are spam and forcing you to invite friends just so you can use an app to its full functionality is viral AKA spamming. It's annoying adding an app only to find out you can't play the game, or you're only given 6 virtual items out of a possible 60 to send to friends, and you have to invite friends to get a few more choices. It's gotten to the point that whenever I see a friend has added a "send (virtual stuff) app in the newsfeed, I'll block that app so nobody can send me invites. I'll check out other apps to see how functional they are, and if they force you to invite friends before you can use them to their full potential, they're crap as far as I'm concerned. At least the super poke gives you scads of actions to choose from right at the beginning, so, it's still a fun app. But other apps just skirt by the rule against forced-invites by doing as little as they can get away with for the user and forcing them to invite friends to get any more use out of them. Blech.
Jesse
· 1 year ago
Capri,
I'm not unsympathetic. I've personally blocked most applications, for example. This article was written from a developer's perspective, though.
I agree that from a user's perspective these are (potentially) good developments.
Ryan Hupfer
· 1 year ago
Interesting facts and figures - great work on this post. Wow.
As far as making money from these things, I know for a fact that one of my buddies just got paid about $4,000 to create a pretty straightforward Facebook App for a client. The demand is still there in the normal business world, as they are now just realizing what a Facebook App even is.
Are you going to get funded for $10 million due to your Facebook App awesomeness? Odds are slim to none, but with a little bit of sales savvy and some skills you could definitely make some decent money from the development work.
paolo
· 1 year ago
hey James. thanks for the heads up and sorry for the misinterpretation. I took out your link as resource on the post 'The Facebook Decline.' sorry about that.
Apps-R-Us - Buy Turnkey Facebo
· 1 year ago
Interesting article :) Thanks Jesse!
James
· 1 year ago
Since most of the people I know who use facebook are teenagers, in high school, maybe the decline is due to the fact that some individuals are now starting the cram mode for their exams and it may probably pick up again after Summer when everyone gets back from vacation snd has pictures and drama to share.
Jesse
· 1 year ago
James,
This report is about the engagement Facebook developers, not end users.
Adam Cox
· 1 year ago
That is when they announced many of the FBFund grants also. I think many developers were let down and abandoned their Facebook champaign.
Word of Mouth Mike
· 1 year ago
Jesse, I think you are too dismissive of Capri's excellent observations. As a professional networker as well as a developer I have noticed that there is no corresponding drop off in networking activity.
I think the 'get rich quick' developers have moved on to greener pastures, where they can use their spammy techniques on audiences that have not become sick of crap applications. They filled the forum with 'I don't know how to program but I have a great idea to make loads of quick money'.
I think the forum has settled down to a more professional and realistic level where people are now in it for the longer term.
Nice figures and graphs though, maybe you're in the wrong trade;)
Warm regards, Mike
Jesse
· 1 year ago
Mike,
Respectfully, you are wrong. Do you spend much time on the forums? There are basically two types of posts nowadays: one, novices asking "Help! How do I program?"-type questions; and two, a handful of 5-6 "old timers" who post inside jokes and complain about how hard it is these days.
There is essentially zero sharing of information or expertise going on. It's really a no-man's land at this point.
If I may ask, how many Facebook applications have you developed, what was your level of success, and how much time did you spend on the forum? If you give me your forum username I'll look up your stats for you, too.
Michael Staton
· 1 year ago
I have a funded company focusing on one app. We're totally disillusioned with platform because they're not willing to deal with the noise/signal problem. They've made it easy for one guy with some PHP to launch an app onto a playing field where real apps pushed by real companies have no way to distinguish themselves. It's no place for disruptive products outside the social gaming/ad network space.
lou
· 1 year ago
as much as i'd like to believe you what i think you've got there is holiday stats. January sis a big month for the internet because it's a holiday period, for all of january - atleast in australia, you may scoff but the reality is that Australia has a very high per capita of online people, you have every bored high school kid university student and parent looking for something ot do online to fill their days.
then real life comes creeping back.
Jesse
· 1 year ago
Lou,
The article talks about developer activity not user activity. Also, you can see the seasonal dips around the holidays if you break it down day by day and it's nowhere near as pronounced as the month-over-month macro trend.
Cheers, Jesse
keenkang
· 1 year ago
i support Jeffrey McManus. every developer konw how to use the api flatform, so they don't need to post new questions on the forum.
JuStIn
· 1 year ago
Hi,
i am very disappointed with the way facebook team handle the operations and the most important is the support. You imagine they just disabled my account without any valid reason, explannation or even a warning issue to my facebook. It's totally lose my confidence in using facebook.
The worst outcome is that i even take my time and effort just to send them an email in regarding the issue of being disabled by adminstrator. I have send quite a number and various department also but in the end , there's not a single reply or quick response. If i am a person / entrepruner whom thinking to buy over facebook and make it rich even more, i will not consider facebook if they still continues without replying or handle my situation.
Frankly speaking beginning of last year , i have known facebook already, but i don't even want to use to view what is inside till i last month went in as alot of people saying that there's an application on facebook which is " MobWar ". That is an interesting game i even play. I shall buy over mobwar if i could and instead of facebook. Just because they impress me and credits goes to mobwar inventors. Facebook also not bad which came up a platform and earn profits just like this. too bad, now facebookn faces this dropping of level activities is just because of not taking consideration of a user / account holders.
All Comments
I don't know if that's true — the decline between Jan. 31st and Feb. 2nd is just so well-defined. In fact, January as a whole was the best month for the Facebook platform so far.
I included a timeline in the spreadsheet and lots of stuff began happening right around then. On the 16th Facebook began instituting all these new rules, and other platforms finally began implementing OpenSocial 0.7 which included proper distribution channels. Before that OpenSocial was a joke.
The decline in app activity happened right around then, too. If you correlate the % Active App graph with the Posts per Day graph from 2/2/2008 onward you get a correlation coefficient of 0.95, for example.
On your graph of application success by week of launch, the 4 week moving average seems to decline most significantly from early January to early February, so doesn't that indicate something similar? Or am I reading it wrong?
the reason i find facebook so awful is because of the incredible over-featured heaviness of it. and the Apps don't help. They really degrade the value of facebook to me. What a mess they are.
Very nice write-up though, interesting to see the numbers to back you suspicions up rather than just what you think is happening.
This is not a terrific metric for developer activity -- it doesn't measure what you purport to measure. Developers generally view and post to forums when they have problems; if fewer developers are posting to the forums, it may mean that there are more developers who are having less trouble.
Leading off with this assertion makes it seem like you started with a thesis ("winning on Facebook is not as easy as it used to be") and then went out to try to find data to support this. Your thesis may be correct, but your data doesn't support it, since you aren't measuring "winning".
I fail to see how that's a bad measure of activity on the developer forums. The question is, why are fewer developers participating?
One hypothesis is that developers know what they need to know and have stopped using the forums. Do you have any evidence for this? Even if it is true, it doesn't explain the data. Why are fewer applications succeeding today? Why was there noticeable decline beginning around February 2nd? Why don't we see spikes whenever Facebook pushes a major change? These are the things I'd expect to see if forum usage were really just a documentation issue.
Anecdotally I know that's not true — people used the forums to talk about more than just API questions. Look at how they're structured. Only 1/4 of the forum is dedicated to technical issues. In fact, the "business" section has just as many posts overall as the technical section.
Another hypothesis is that developers are becoming less active because it's harder to succeed. This seems more likely given the high correlation between application success (see the section "Facebook Application Data" for these numbers) and forum activity. Correlation is not causation, of course, so something else could be going on, but it's wrong to dismiss these phenomenon as unrelated out of hand.
Here, anecdotally, I think I'm right because many of the top developers agree with me in private. See Zach Allia there, above? He wrote Free Gifts. Since writing this article I've been contacted by a significant number of Top 50 app developers telling me I'm spot on.
So, am I crazy? Prove me wrong — don't just insist on it.
specifically:
1) funding
2) revenue/profits
3) acquisitions
developer activity stats are interesting, but these are the ones that make or break this market, and/or Facebook relative to other platforms.
(virality & engagement matter too, but funding & monetization & acquisition trumps uber alles)
my .02 anyway ;)
I don't disagree, but I what data I have in that respect I'm not free to talk about publicly. Heh!
You should write a post about it. It's all about the (virtual) benjamins.
No, but unlike you, I'm not making any assertions about the state of developer activity on Facebook. ("Prove me wrong" isn't valid evidence. I could say that sun won't come up tomorrow -- prove me wrong.) You're the one making the assertion, so it's up to you to prove your point.
I'm not trying to say you're wrong, necessarily. I'm saying that the data that you're pulling together does not prove your assertion. People participate in online forums for a lot of reasons.
Here's a thought experiment for you: let's say that Facebook rolled out a change that broke in some fundamental way. Would the corresponding spike in activity on the forums be indicative of an increase in the health of the platform? Of course not. But it would make as much sense as what you're asserting.
You didn't really address my response. Even if what you were saying is true it doesn't explain the high correlation between developer activity on the forums and the reduced level of success for Facebook applications launched today versus four months ago. Nor does it explain the sudden decline we see beginning around February 2nd in five of the seven measurements I took.
So, can you offer an alternative hypothesis that explains the data? Also, my claim is falsifiable, so I invite you to falsify it.
Cheers,
Jesse
Yeah, and then, you could build a network like Facebook or Myspace ON this "World Wide Web" and then, within those Facebooks and MySpaces, you could then build NEW social networks that would allow people to sign up and share pictures, video, text, and all kinds of data.
Dave
So I don't think I agree that the "luster is gone", more that the "hype luster" is gone...
I'm not unsympathetic. I've personally blocked most applications, for example. This article was written from a developer's perspective, though.
I agree that from a user's perspective these are (potentially) good developments.
As far as making money from these things, I know for a fact that one of my buddies just got paid about $4,000 to create a pretty straightforward Facebook App for a client. The demand is still there in the normal business world, as they are now just realizing what a Facebook App even is.
Are you going to get funded for $10 million due to your Facebook App awesomeness? Odds are slim to none, but with a little bit of sales savvy and some skills you could definitely make some decent money from the development work.
This report is about the engagement Facebook developers, not end users.
I think the 'get rich quick' developers have moved on to greener pastures, where they can use their spammy techniques on audiences that have not become sick of crap applications. They filled the forum with 'I don't know how to program but I have a great idea to make loads of quick money'.
I think the forum has settled down to a more professional and realistic level where people are now in it for the longer term.
Nice figures and graphs though, maybe you're in the wrong trade;)
Warm regards, Mike
Respectfully, you are wrong. Do you spend much time on the forums? There are basically two types of posts nowadays: one, novices asking "Help! How do I program?"-type questions; and two, a handful of 5-6 "old timers" who post inside jokes and complain about how hard it is these days.
There is essentially zero sharing of information or expertise going on. It's really a no-man's land at this point.
If I may ask, how many Facebook applications have you developed, what was your level of success, and how much time did you spend on the forum? If you give me your forum username I'll look up your stats for you, too.
then real life comes creeping back.
The article talks about developer activity not user activity. Also, you can see the seasonal dips around the holidays if you break it down day by day and it's nowhere near as pronounced as the month-over-month macro trend.
Cheers,
Jesse
every developer konw how to use the api flatform, so they don't need to post new questions on the forum.
i am very disappointed with the way facebook team handle the operations and the most important is the support. You imagine they just disabled my account without any valid reason, explannation or even a warning issue to my facebook. It's totally lose my confidence in using facebook.
The worst outcome is that i even take my time and effort just to send them an email in regarding the issue of being disabled by adminstrator. I have send quite a number and various department also but in the end , there's not a single reply or quick response. If i am a person / entrepruner whom thinking to buy over facebook and make it rich even more, i will not consider facebook if they still continues without replying or handle my situation.
Frankly speaking beginning of last year , i have known facebook already, but i don't even want to use to view what is inside till i last month went in as alot of people saying that there's an application on facebook which is " MobWar ". That is an interesting game i even play. I shall buy over mobwar if i could and instead of facebook. Just because they impress me and credits goes to mobwar inventors. Facebook also not bad which came up a platform and earn profits just like this. too bad, now facebookn faces this dropping of level activities is just because of not taking consideration of a user / account holders.
Damn Disapppointed.
cheers,
Justin